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The objective of this section is to present the best available data on a wide range of health and related indicators.  This should provide health planners and managers with easy access to data from a variety of sources.

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Total fertility rate

DefinitionThe average number of children that a woman gives birth to in her lifetime, assuming that the prevailing rates remain unchanged.

The TFR is one of the most useful indicators of fertility because it gives the best picture of how many children women are currently having.
ReferenceDepartment of Health, Medical Research Council & Measure DHS+. South Africa Demographic and Health Survey 1998, Full Report. Pretoria: Department of Health; 2002.
Ref. URLhttp://www.doh.gov.za/facts/1998/sadhs98/
DetailsPRB Handbook pg 16-20
Keywords
Indicator Type: -> Demographic

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Indicator Data
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ECFSGPKZNLPMPNCNWWCZA
Total fertility rate [Definition]
1991 4.63.73.04.35.84.32.94.52.7[1] 3.3
1996 [2] 3.52.82.43.13.63.22.72.82.4-
1998 3.52.22.33.33.93.12.72.42.3[3] 2.9
2000 ---------[4] 3.1
2001 3.32.52.43.03.63.12.42.82.4[5] 2.8
2003 2.22.02.30.62.72.32.82.52.6[6] 2.0
2003 rural---------[7] 2.1
2003 urban---------[8] 2.0
2004 StatsSA3.42.62.53.13.73.22.52.82.5[9] 2.8
2005 HDR---------[10] 2.6
2005 StatsSA---------[11] 2.8
2006 CS---------[12] 2.5
2006 StatsSA---------[13] 2.7
2011 high estimate2.92.92.72.93.03.02.33.02.2[14] 2.6
2011 low estimate2.62.52.42.52.62.62.12.62.0[15] 2.2
2026 high estimate2.12.12.02.12.12.11.82.11.8[16] 1.8
2026 low estimate1.71.71.71.71.71.71.61.71.6[17] 1.5
EC: Eastern Cape  FS: Free State  GP: Gauteng  KZN: KwaZulu-Natal  LP: Limpopo  MP: Mpumalanga  NC: Northern Cape  NW: North West  WC: Western Cape  ZA: South Africa  

Notes and References

  1. Development Bank 1994: Erasmus J, editor. South Africa's nine provinces: A human development profile. Midrand: Development Bank of Southern Africa; 1994. Publication not available electronically. Organisation web site http://www.dbsa.org/
    Local copy: -
    Table 24: Annexure A pg 90.
  2. SAHR 2000 Ch4: Bradshaw D, Masiteng K, Nannan N. Health Status and Determinants. In: Ntuli A, Crisp N, Clarke E, Barron P, editors. South African Health Review 2000. Durban: Health Systems Trust; 2001. http://www.hst.org.za/publications/404
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/
    Based on 1996 Census. Quoting Dorrington R, Nannan N, Bradshaw D. Current fertility rates in South Africa: 1996 Census revisited. (Submitted to) Southern African Journal of Demography 2000. Table 1 pg 93
  3. SADHS 1998: Department of Health, Medical Research Council & Measure DHS+. South Africa Demographic and Health Survey 1998, Full Report. Pretoria: Department of Health; 2002. http://www.doh.gov.za/facts/1998/sadhs98/
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/SADHS_1998_Full.pdf
    The 1998 national TFR is considered to be an under-estimate. The real figure is considered to be about 3.2 (see Udjo EO, Lestrade-Jefferis J. Fertility and mortality in South Africa. (on request from StatsSA)) Differences between subgroups show that fertility rates are correlated with education level, urban/rural residence, province and population group. [SAHR 2000 Ch 4]. Table 11 pg 19.
  4. Human Development Report 2001: Human Development Report 2001: Making new technologies work for human development. New York: United Nations Development Programme; 2001. http://hdr.undp.org/reports/global/2001/en/
    Local copy: -
    Table 5: Demographic Trends pg 155
  5. CARe Fertility: Moultrie TA, Dorrington R. Estimation of fertility from the 2001 South Africa Census data. CARe Monograph No. 12. Cape Town: Centre for Actuarial Research; 2004. http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/care/
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/Population/CARe_fertility_Mono12.pdf
  6. SADHS 2003 (Preliminary): South Africa Demographic and Health Survey 2003. Preliminary Report. Pretoria: Department of Health; 2004. http://www.doh.gov.za/
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/SADHS_2003.pdf
    This survey shows a rapid decline in TFR - and it is necessary to explore how much is real - and how much is due to under-reporting of births. When the very low value for KZN is omitted the national TFR rises to 2.4. The number of White women interviewed was too small to provide a reliable measure of the TFR.
  7. SADHS 2003 (Preliminary): South Africa Demographic and Health Survey 2003. Preliminary Report. Pretoria: Department of Health; 2004. http://www.doh.gov.za/
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/SADHS_2003.pdf
  8. SADHS 2003 (Preliminary): South Africa Demographic and Health Survey 2003. Preliminary Report. Pretoria: Department of Health; 2004. http://www.doh.gov.za/
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/SADHS_2003.pdf
  9. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
    2004 mid-year estimates. TFR assumptions used in development of the current mid-year estimates. Source includes comparison of values to other estimates.
  10. Human Development Report 2004: Human Development Report 2004: Cultural liberty in today's diverse world. New York: United Nations Development Programme; 2004. http://hdr.undp.org/reports/global/2004/
    Local copy: -
    Estimate for period 2000-2005
  11. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
    2005 mid-year estimates.
  12. Community Survey 2007: Statistics South Africa. Community Survey 2007. Various reports and online databases. http://www.statssa.gov.za
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/CommSurvey/
  13. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
    2006 mid-year estimates.
  14. IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed. Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed. Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
    Local copy: -
    Estimate for 2011-2016. Table 2.7 pg 29
  15. IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed. Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed. Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
    Local copy: -
    Estimate for 2011-2016. Fig 4.7 pg 167
  16. IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed. Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed. Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
    Local copy: -
    Estimate for 2026-2031. Table 2.7 pg 29
  17. IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed. Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed. Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
    Local copy: -
    Estimate for 2011-2016. Fig 4.7 pg 167
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