Health Statistics
The objective of this section is to present the best available data on a wide range of health and related indicators.  This should provide health planners and managers with easy access to data from a variety of sources.

Percentage of deaths due to AIDS

[Related Resources]

Indicator Data
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Notes and References

1. ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions: * no antiretroviral therapy * mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective) * treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001 * a doubling in condom usage over the next five years * a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years. The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
   Local copy: -
   
2. Metropolitan 2001: Kramer S. Mortality & Population: The Doyle Model. Metropolitan. 2001. (PowerPoint presentation and spreadsheet) skramer@metropolitan.co.za
   Local copy: -
   
3. HIV Indicators 2002: Dorrington RE, Bradshaw D, Budlender D. HIV/AIDS profile of the provinces of South Africa indicators for 2002. Centre for Actuarial Research, Medical Research Council and the Actuarial Society of South Africa; 2002. http://www.mrc.ac.za/bod/AIDSindicators2002.pdf AIDSIndicators2002.pdf
   Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/HIV_AIDS/HIVIndicators_2002.pdf
   
4. HIV Indicators 2004: Dorrington R, Bradshaw D, Johnson L, Budlender D. The Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: National Indicators for 2004. Cape Town: Centre for Actuarial Research, South African Medical Research Council and Actuarial Society of SA; 2004. http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/care/ ISBN: 1-920015-17-5
   Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/HIV_AIDS/HIVIndicators_2004.pdf
   
5. ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions: * no antiretroviral therapy * mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective) * treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001 * a doubling in condom usage over the next five years * a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years. The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
   Local copy: -
   
6. ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions: * no antiretroviral therapy * mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective) * treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001 * a doubling in condom usage over the next five years * a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years. The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
   Local copy: -
   
7. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
   Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
   2004 mid-year estimates. 'Change' is the result from running the model with YES to all interventions. See www.assa.org.za
8. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
   Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
   2004 mid-year estimates. No change is the result from running the model with no interventions. See www.assa.org.za
9. Metropolitan 2001: Kramer S. Mortality & Population: The Doyle Model. Metropolitan. 2001. (PowerPoint presentation and spreadsheet) skramer@metropolitan.co.za
   Local copy: -
   
10. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
    2004 mid-year estimates. Estimates used in development of population estimates.
11. ASSA 2003: ASSA2003 Model: ProvOutput. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. [cited 2006 Jun 19]. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/HIV_AIDS/ASSA2003ProvOutput_051129.zip
    Downloaded 2006-06-19
12. ASSA 2003: ASSA2003 Model: ProvOutput. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. [cited 2006 Jun 19]. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/HIV_AIDS/ASSA2003ProvOutput_051129.zip
    Downloaded 2006-06-19
13. ASSA 2003: ASSA2003 Model: ProvOutput. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. [cited 2006 Jun 19]. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/HIV_AIDS/ASSA2003ProvOutput_051129.zip
    
14. ASSA 2003: ASSA2003 Model: ProvOutput. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. [cited 2006 Jun 19]. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/HIV_AIDS/ASSA2003ProvOutput_051129.zip
    
15. ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions: * no antiretroviral therapy * mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective) * treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001 * a doubling in condom usage over the next five years * a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years. The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
    Local copy: -
    
16. ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions: * no antiretroviral therapy * mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective) * treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001 * a doubling in condom usage over the next five years * a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years. The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
    Local copy: -
    
17. ASSA 2003: ASSA2003 Model: ProvOutput. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. [cited 2006 Jun 19]. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/HIV_AIDS/ASSA2003ProvOutput_051129.zip
    
18. Metropolitan 2001: Kramer S. Mortality & Population: The Doyle Model. Metropolitan. 2001. (PowerPoint presentation and spreadsheet) skramer@metropolitan.co.za
    Local copy: -
    
19. ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions: * no antiretroviral therapy * mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective) * treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001 * a doubling in condom usage over the next five years * a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years. The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
    Local copy: -
    
20. ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions: * no antiretroviral therapy * mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective) * treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001 * a doubling in condom usage over the next five years * a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years. The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
    Local copy: -
    
21. Metropolitan 2001: Kramer S. Mortality & Population: The Doyle Model. Metropolitan. 2001. (PowerPoint presentation and spreadsheet) skramer@metropolitan.co.za
    Local copy: -
    
22. Metropolitan 2001: Kramer S. Mortality & Population: The Doyle Model. Metropolitan. 2001. (PowerPoint presentation and spreadsheet) skramer@metropolitan.co.za
    Local copy: -