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AIDS orphans
| Definition | Number of children under 18 years who have lost either a mother (maternal orphan), a father (paternal orphan) or both parents (a double orphan) due to HIV/AIDS.
Previously the definition used was: Number of children under 15 years whose mothers have died of HIV/AIDS.
A summary of the definitions used:
ASSA 2000 - maternal orphans less than 15 years
ASSA 2002 - maternal orphans less than 18 years
ASSA 2003 - maternal orphans less than 18 years. |
| Reference | Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. |
| Ref. URL | http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ |
| Keywords | |
Indicator Type: -> Health Status -> HIV and AIDS [Related Resources]
| A | C | I | W | O | ALL |
| AIDS orphans [Definition] |
| 2000 ASSA2000 change/no change | - | - | - | - | - | [1] 124 989 |
| 2002 | - | - | - | - | - | [2] 338 932 |
| 2004 ASSA2002 | - | - | - | - | - | [3] 626 000 |
| 2005 ASSA2000 change | - | - | - | - | - | [4] 684 364 |
| 2005 ASSA2000 no change | - | - | - | - | - | [5] 685 354 |
| 2006 ASSA2003 | - | - | - | - | - | [6] 1 018 548 |
| 2007 ASSA2003 | - | - | - | - | - | [7] 1 201 675 |
| 2008 ASSA2003 | - | - | - | - | - | [8] 1 374 883 |
| 2009 ASSA2003 | - | - | - | - | - | [9] 1 532 991 |
| 2010 ASSA2000 change | - | - | - | - | - | [10] 1 502 457 |
| 2010 ASSA2000 no change | - | - | - | - | - | [11] 1 531 229 |
| 2010 ASSA2002 | - | - | - | - | - | [12] 1 597 000 |
| 2010 ASSA2003 | - | - | - | - | - | [13] 1 674 359 |
| 2015 ASSA2000 change | - | - | - | - | - | [14] 1 691 550 |
| 2015 ASSA2000 no change | - | - | - | - | - | [15] 1 854 462 |
| 2015 ASSA2002 | - | - | - | - | - | [16] 1 938 000 |
|---|
| A: African/Black C: Coloured I: Indian/Asian W: White O: Other/Unspecified ALL: All groups |
Notes and References
- ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions:
* no antiretroviral therapy
* mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective)
* treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001
* a doubling in condom usage over the next five years
* a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years.
The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
Local copy: -
- HIV Indicators 2002: Dorrington RE, Bradshaw D, Budlender D.
HIV/AIDS profile of the provinces of South Africa indicators for 2002. Centre for Actuarial Research, Medical Research Council and the Actuarial Society of South Africa; 2002. http://www.mrc.ac.za/bod/AIDSindicators2002.pdf AIDSIndicators2002.pdf
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/HIV_AIDS/HIVIndicators_2002.pdf Estimated total no. AIDS orphans - maternal orphans <18 years
- HIV Indicators 2004: Dorrington R, Bradshaw D, Johnson L, Budlender D. The Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: National Indicators for 2004. Cape Town: Centre for Actuarial Research, South African Medical Research Council and Actuarial Society of SA; 2004. http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/care/ ISBN: 1-920015-17-5
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/HIV_AIDS/HIVIndicators_2004.pdf Maternal orphans under 18.
- ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions:
* no antiretroviral therapy
* mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective)
* treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001
* a doubling in condom usage over the next five years
* a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years.
The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
Local copy: -
- ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions:
* no antiretroviral therapy
* mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective)
* treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001
* a doubling in condom usage over the next five years
* a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years.
The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
Local copy: -
- ASSA 2003: ASSA2003 Model: ProvOutput. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. [cited 2006 Jun 19].
http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/HIV_AIDS/ASSA2003ProvOutput_051129.zip Downloaded 2006-06-19
- ASSA 2003: ASSA2003 Model: ProvOutput. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. [cited 2006 Jun 19].
http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/HIV_AIDS/ASSA2003ProvOutput_051129.zip Downloaded 2006-06-19
- ASSA 2003: ASSA2003 Model: ProvOutput. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. [cited 2006 Jun 19].
http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/HIV_AIDS/ASSA2003ProvOutput_051129.zip
- ASSA 2003: ASSA2003 Model: ProvOutput. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. [cited 2006 Jun 19].
http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/HIV_AIDS/ASSA2003ProvOutput_051129.zip
- ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions:
* no antiretroviral therapy
* mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective)
* treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001
* a doubling in condom usage over the next five years
* a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years.
The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
Local copy: -
- ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions:
* no antiretroviral therapy
* mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective)
* treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001
* a doubling in condom usage over the next five years
* a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years.
The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
Local copy: -
- HIV Indicators 2004: Dorrington R, Bradshaw D, Johnson L, Budlender D. The Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: National Indicators for 2004. Cape Town: Centre for Actuarial Research, South African Medical Research Council and Actuarial Society of SA; 2004. http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/care/ ISBN: 1-920015-17-5
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/HIV_AIDS/HIVIndicators_2004.pdf
- ASSA 2003: ASSA2003 Model: ProvOutput. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. [cited 2006 Jun 19].
http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/HIV_AIDS/ASSA2003ProvOutput_051129.zip
- ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions:
* no antiretroviral therapy
* mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective)
* treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001
* a doubling in condom usage over the next five years
* a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years.
The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
Local copy: -
- ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions:
* no antiretroviral therapy
* mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective)
* treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001
* a doubling in condom usage over the next five years
* a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years.
The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
Local copy: -
- HIV Indicators 2004: Dorrington R, Bradshaw D, Johnson L, Budlender D. The Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: National Indicators for 2004. Cape Town: Centre for Actuarial Research, South African Medical Research Council and Actuarial Society of SA; 2004. http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/care/ ISBN: 1-920015-17-5
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/HIV_AIDS/HIVIndicators_2004.pdf
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