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AIDS threatens SAs economic growth
Associated Press
2000-04-13

A Barings report describes how AIDS will affect South Africa's economic growth.

South Africa's AIDS epidemic is now threatening the country's economic growth by further depleting the labor pool of highly skilled workers and increasing inflation. The newspaper Business Day cited an ING Barings report which concluded that the disease will cut South Africa's annual growth rate by 0.3-0.4 percentage points over the next 15 years. The report also said that when AIDS infections reach 8% of a population, the per capita growth decreases by 0.4% a year. According to the South African Actuarial Society, 12% of South Africans have HIV, and infection rates are expected to peak at 17% in 2006. Moreover, the Star newspaper noted that although the HIV infection rate among highly skilled workers is only a third of that among less-skilled laborers, it is still enough to cause a shortage of highly skilled people that is likely to drive up inflation. The Barings report blamed public and private policy for not presenting a clear strategy to combat the epidemic, noting also that uncertainty about the epidemic's effects is deterring foreign investors. A World Bank report, to be discussed next week in Washington, D.C., at a meeting with the International Monetary Fund, calls AIDS the foremost challenge to development in sub-Saharan Africa. (Source: Associated Press, 11/4/00).


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HIV prevalence (%) (antenatal) (2004-10-04)
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2nd South African AIDS Conference (2005-06-07)
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