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South African HIV/Aids numbers tally
Tamar Kahn
2006-01-17

Two studies broadly agree for the first time on the number of people infected with HIV/Aids in South Africa, according to the Science and Development Network website. In the past, South African studies focusing on HIV/Aids infection rates have produced widely divergent figures.

The studies were released independently by two of the country's major research bodies. Both suggest a deepening crisis, with about one in nine South Africans infected with HIV.

Earlier this year, the country's main statistics agency, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) and the health department published two widely different estimates. Stats SA said 4.5 million South Africans were infected with HIV, while the health department put the number at more than 6.3 million.

The two new studies struck an unprecedented middle ground in their estimate of about five million infections.

Epidemic far from slowing
The first, by the Actuarial Society of South Africa, suggests that the epidemic is far from slowing. The figures incorporate surveys of HIV prevalence among pregnant women attending government clinics, a household survey conducted by the Human Sciences Research Council in 2002, a local youth survey, data from the most recent population census, and death registration records.

The second study, commissioned by the Nelson Mandela Foundation and published by the Human Sciences Research Council, surveyed households across the country and included HIV tests on 15 800 people.

Although the response rate was only 55%, the researchers took this into account when working out the results for the general population, said Olive Shisana, the HSRC executive director. The HSRC survey suggests that misinformation and lack of knowledge about the disease remain widespread, and raise concerns about how effective the multitude of HIV prevention campaigns currently underway in the country are.

A significant percentage of elderly and young respondents - those aged over 50 and those in the 12 to 14 age bracket - were either unsure if HIV caused Aids or firmly believed it did not. This suggested these age groups had been neglected by prevention campaigns, said Shisana. - SciDev.Net

Related Links

Actuarial Society of South Africa homepage

HSRC homepage

Stats SA homepage

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